Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 23.399204 25.539387 27.870853 30.614288 33.773547 37.321286 41.640293
2025-08-10 19.800201 22.637018 25.952509 30.170196 35.477230 42.053754 51.020342
2025-08-17 17.524279 20.751469 24.734147 30.130257 37.450617 47.360871 62.426620
2025-08-24 15.751005 19.159548 23.547883 29.803266 38.842058 52.070068 74.342490
2025-08-31 14.400151 17.900608 22.566182 29.507345 40.104298 56.752507 87.691974
2025-09-07 13.321178 16.860515 21.717281 29.213787 41.230807 61.386520 102.636610
2025-09-14 12.466008 16.027480 21.041270 29.039994 42.451935 66.399822 120.435098
2025-09-21 11.682264 15.216003 20.298149 28.636802 43.177291 70.646114 138.662004
2025-09-28 11.396340 15.085926 20.536859 29.808783 46.832725 81.571836 180.101650
2025-10-05 10.829290 14.491634 20.001517 29.608914 47.902507 87.402390 212.048660
2025-10-12 10.348230 13.988519 19.559334 29.504726 49.122879 93.951320 252.486868
2025-10-19 10.015493 13.685461 19.405410 29.882823 51.379315 103.811927 317.370060
2025-10-26 9.597297 13.230518 18.979406 29.738817 52.568448 111.562850 386.663964
2025-11-02 9.195069 12.776794 18.521827 29.486890 53.490127 119.046112 470.795229
2025-11-09 8.877392 12.438229 18.232273 29.524623 55.096741 129.416392 603.196051
2025-11-16 8.533438 12.036899 17.804463 29.240198 55.882266 137.586608 751.302842
2025-11-23 8.218964 11.666255 17.403757 28.966679 56.650389 146.195404 950.936083
2025-11-30 7.927761 11.318574 17.019870 28.687117 57.357799 155.083436 1223.696103
2025-12-07 7.674333 11.020766 16.705373 28.520569 58.344091 165.812621 1652.482413
2025-12-14 7.407003 10.686807 16.304472 28.129036 58.643985 173.921795 2175.710595
2025-12-21 7.363254 10.728059 16.592127 29.270864 63.595186 207.870385 5018.180935
2025-12-28 7.148990 10.466303 16.297597 29.076492 64.531997 222.355255 8704.062067
2026-01-04 6.959341 10.238680 16.053961 28.975143 65.753221 239.880660 19074.307171